Which heating system is cheapest over 20 years?

Compare heat pump, gas, oil and pellets including investment, price rise and total cost.

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How the heating comparison works

Living area times heat demand per square meter equals annual heat need in kWh. The calculator derives required fuel (or electricity) per system, accounting for efficiency (gas/oil) or seasonal performance factor (heat pump). Over the horizon it sums investment, annual energy cost and a chosen price escalation.

Heat pump vs. gas — which wins in 2026?

For modern, well-insulated homes (40–80 kWh/m²) with a SCOP from 3.5, a heat pump usually wins: electricity costs more per kWh, but you need far fewer kWh per kWh of heat than with gas. In old buildings with high heat demand and old radiators, gas or pellets may still be cheaper. CO2 pricing increases yearly, pushing fossil fuels up over time.

What this calculation does not cover

  • Maintenance and repair costs vary widely and are not included.
  • Self-consumed PV can dramatically lower heat-pump running cost.
  • Subsidy programs change frequently — verify before contracting.
  • CO2 pricing rises annually and may push gas/oil higher than modeled.